Abstract The purpose of present work is to deepen the understanding of crack propagation, non-propagation, and fatigue limit. Quantitative prediction of fatigue crack non-propagation in constant amplitude loading is attempted through extensive 3D elastic–plastic finite element analysis of near-threshold propagation of short cracks nucleating from surface defects. Level of plasticity-induced crack closure is used to estimate the effective stress intensity factor range, which is evaluated in terms of non-propagation potential. It is shown that plasticity-induced crack closure alone is adequate in producing a local minimum in the development of effective stress intensity factor range, which gives a prerequisite to crack arrest.