Finland's GDP is projected to grow by 1.5% in 2022. Western countries have reacted to Russia's invasion of Ukraine by imposing economic sanctions against Russia, which will result in Finnish economic growth slowing due to a decline in exports and manufacturing output. Increases in consumer prices will result in GDP growth slowing as household purchasing power shrinks and private consumption growth slows. GDP will grow by 1.7% in 2023 and by 1.5% in 2024.

The forecast assumes that the current sanctions imposed by both sides will remain in place. A key aspect for the economy is that the availability of raw materials and energy from Russia to Europe will be disrupted but not discontinued. The forecast does not assume any new restrictions to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic that would have economic impacts.

Following the easing of the COVID-19 crisis, the general government budgetary position has improved rapidly driven by the favourable economic situation, and general government finances will continue to improve over the next few years. General government finances will be weakened by the slowing of economic activity and preparedness and support measures. The general government budgetary position will begin to weaken again over the medium term. The debt-to-GDP ratio will start to grow again due to preparedness and support measures on the one hand, and due to slowing growth on the other hand.